This Indicator Has Called Every Recession Over the Last 80 Years. Here's What It's Saying Now.

With the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI), no imagination is required. Moody's Analytics ( MCO +2.88%) chief economist Mark Zandi ...

The Hidden Indicator Behind the S&P500’s Biggest Turning Points

What if one of the simplest ways to outperform the market was to look beneath the surface? This is precisely what the S&P ...

Recession Probability Sits At 40% To 50%—Here Is How To Size That Risk

Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves ...

New early 'clue' could be warning sign of 'first symptom of Alzheimer's'

A study has uncovered a previously unknown early warning sign that could indicate Alzheimer's disease. Research conducted on ...
Thorax

School-age lung function after preterm birth: early-life determinants in a paediatric pulmonology cohort with comparison with NHANES

Introduction Lung-function outcomes among preterm-born children referred for pulmonology care are highly heterogeneous, and ...

ARK Invest Integrates Kalshi Prediction Market Data Into Investment Process

ARK Invest has announced it will incorporate Kalshi prediction market data into its investment process, using real-time ...
The Conversation

What oil, stocks and bonds are telling us about the Iran conflict and how long it might last

When a conflict escalates, financial markets respond within minutes. That reaction is not just panic or speculation – it is a kind of collective judgement about what might happen next. At the same ...
The Times Leader

Indicators 2025: How counties and municipalities function in PA

WILKES-BARRE — Local government offices are essential to the daily functioning of every community, yet The Institute’s Indicators Report says they are often the least understood level of government in ...
San Francisco Fed

Interest Rate Probability Distributions

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...