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Conditional Probability
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Conditional Probability
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1:42
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DataMListic
The Beta Distribution Is Just Wins and Losses
A probability is a single number between zero and one, but what if that number is itself uncertain? The Beta distribution is a whole curve over every possible value, and it has two knobs: alpha counts your wins and pulls the curve toward one, while beta counts your losses and pulls it toward zero. The balance point sits at alpha over alpha plus ...
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